Arrival

Momentum seems to be underway to take the market below 8000.  Having the bad news being greater than the analysts' estimates only encourages the drop.  We are experiencing a time when forecasts do not carry much accuracy.  The bear did not hibernate this winter.  Be more risk averse.  I recommend that everyone be objective and stand back, knowing that what is occurring today on a global scale is a necessary purging.  Use your personal involvement to see inside yourself and what needs purging there.  

In continuing the behind-the-scenes viewing:

*  Russia and the Ukraine continue to deprive Europe of the gas that they rely on to fill 25% of their needs.  Ukraine faces economic collapse as Russia tries to squeeze this country by charging much higher prices per cubic meter.  Russia's monetary reserves are dissolving because of lower oil prices.

*  Will Israel go it alone and air strike Iran's nuclear facilities?  The news came out that they talked to President Bush last year and he said no.

*  Moody Investor Services estimates 300 global junk bond issuers will default; that's 15% versus 12% during the 1991 recession.  This environment creates a severe challenge for companies to raise capital to survive, let alone grow.

*  Citigroup is 'too big to fail,' yet that is what is happening even with $45B given to them from the $700B bailout.  They will break up in an attempt to save the pieces.

*  Bernanke said that more government investment in financial institutions are essential to maintain stability.  How much money is enough achieve this?

What looks unconnected is part of the same puzzle.  Like Chief Seattle said, we are all connected in the same big web.

One final note:  anyone who owns a home should consider appealing the value used by the state assessor's office in determining property taxes.  In my past, I did that once in California.  It took 3 appeals to be accepted.   

Continue Looking Behind the Scenes

To continue what I discussed in my December 1 blog, I want to point out these observations:

*  Like Madoff's fall, am Indian company called Satyam Computer Services (SAY) announced that it has a fraudulent '$1B sink hole.'  Management, including the founder, has decided to stay in their positions and keep the business afloat.   It's stock price dropped 90%.  The story is different than Madoff's but the outcome is the same for the investors.

*  Lebanon is striking Israel.  I am wondering if this setup is going to expand in a way that the 

U. S. and U. N. will be unable to contain.

*  Russia's monopoly on gas sent to Europe shows the vulnerability when the flow is interrupted.

I am  pointing out what I consider behind the scenes activity that we need to make ourselves aware of.  It is like a puzzle; the pieces are accumulating.