Sign of the Times

The DOW has reached 6821 as I write this, exacerbated by AIG losing $61B, the largest company quarterly loss in history.  The company insures 30 million U.S. policy holders, operates in 130 countries, and provides insurance for 100,000 companies.  The federal reserve and treasury still maintain that they have to rescue them because of the 'systemic risk' to the global financial system.  In addition to the $150B invested, another $30B is on its way. This is a deja-vu with more to come.  The share price is $.48; last year it was close to $50.  This company should be broken up into several companies, giving it less power to disrupt the financial world when there are earthquakes like what is occurring at this time. Citi is trading at $1.40 as a result of the latest government intervention.  BAC is trading at $3.31.  Even though the president said the banks are going to remain private, the action taken with Citi still crucified the shareholder, also diluting his intention. 

Also, companies like GE who are part of the DOW 30 is being hammered with a price of $7.64 this morning, one that Mr. Buffet has invested heavily in.  It's a sign of the times; solid companies being traded at prices not imagined before.  And there are so many firms trading as penny stocks now that the SEC is looking at altering their procedures in terms of the requirements of companies falling into this group.

I do see a pinpoint of light.  We went to Redding yesterday, visiting 5 different stores, to look at big ticket items, and noticed  movement in this area.  In conversation with the employees, we heard that people are using their tax refund to purchase big ticket items.  This is a sign, in my opinion, that Mr. Bernanke may be right in saying that the worst will be over in 2009.  For those of us who are invested, I think the prudent action is to stay the course as long as the company or fund appears to be managing in a way to come out intact.

Arrival

Momentum seems to be underway to take the market below 8000.  Having the bad news being greater than the analysts' estimates only encourages the drop.  We are experiencing a time when forecasts do not carry much accuracy.  The bear did not hibernate this winter.  Be more risk averse.  I recommend that everyone be objective and stand back, knowing that what is occurring today on a global scale is a necessary purging.  Use your personal involvement to see inside yourself and what needs purging there.  

In continuing the behind-the-scenes viewing:

*  Russia and the Ukraine continue to deprive Europe of the gas that they rely on to fill 25% of their needs.  Ukraine faces economic collapse as Russia tries to squeeze this country by charging much higher prices per cubic meter.  Russia's monetary reserves are dissolving because of lower oil prices.

*  Will Israel go it alone and air strike Iran's nuclear facilities?  The news came out that they talked to President Bush last year and he said no.

*  Moody Investor Services estimates 300 global junk bond issuers will default; that's 15% versus 12% during the 1991 recession.  This environment creates a severe challenge for companies to raise capital to survive, let alone grow.

*  Citigroup is 'too big to fail,' yet that is what is happening even with $45B given to them from the $700B bailout.  They will break up in an attempt to save the pieces.

*  Bernanke said that more government investment in financial institutions are essential to maintain stability.  How much money is enough achieve this?

What looks unconnected is part of the same puzzle.  Like Chief Seattle said, we are all connected in the same big web.

One final note:  anyone who owns a home should consider appealing the value used by the state assessor's office in determining property taxes.  In my past, I did that once in California.  It took 3 appeals to be accepted.