Prudence and Caution

The best gift we can give ourselves is to be objective and self-aware. This is very important right now around the energy of money.  Here are some recent statistics that you have probably read, but I want to emphasize:

* 70% of the $14T GDP depend on consumer spending.

* This country has around $13T in debt.

* 33% of homeowners are underwater (the media said 22%).

*   67% of homeowners have approximately 15% equity.

*   6M car owners are underwater (value of car less than the loan).

* 8.41% the is uncollectible debt from consumers reported by the banks 2/09.

*   10 banks send out 5B credit solicitations a year.

When you look at these facts and the amount of debt averaged over each person in this country, you can see that this market is rising from 'optimism' energy, versus looking at the financial foundation and the amount of debt that holds it up. We need to look back to see beyond today for the probabilities that rest on the horizon.  For example, look at a year ago and look at today. We have loaned approximately 11T to banks here and in the U.K., all from increasing debt. 

I am a patriotic person and that is my motivation for sharing my views. I want this country to pull out of this and not end up a debtor nation. Here's a quote that I put in an earlier blog that deserves to be reread by Thomas Jefferson in 1802.

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers found."

I'll leave you with this thought from Henry David Thoreau. He believed in civil disobedience and less government. The recent 'tea parties' across the U.S. is heartening and shows that we as individuals have the strength and influence to make a difference. We need to stay awake and be independent when we get that nudge or gut feeling that the government has stepped over the line.  Be prudent and know that every thought and action counts.

Transparency

I wrote to Senators Shelby, Feinstein, Boxer, and Herger to oppose bailing out the auto industry.  Here is the summary:  "As I wrote to you regarding the $700B bailout, I am writing to say  I am opposed to bailing out the auto industry.  This country is spending hundreds of billions in the short run and I don't see anyone looking at 'saving' something for future unknowns.  Also, why give money or loans to the automakers who have the same business structure and management that brought them to the financial situation they are in?  This country cannot afford to keep 'rescuing.'  We will get to a point where the U. S. cannot rescue themselves when the foreign investors finally say 'enough is enough' with buying our bonds and treasury bills.  The government needs to start showing its citizens how to 'save' money by setting the example.  We are on the wrong track and moving at lightening speed. To get off this track will be painful for most of us.  But the time is now.  I don't want to see our kids, grandkids, and those to follow bear this burden.  We need to resolve it now.  Thank you for listening."

Since I wrote the last email, looking for threads, I saw a few interesting ones.  First, over the next 18 months, banks are going to cancel lines of credit from credit cards to the tune of $2 trillion.  Second, money for mortgages are shrinking and the forecast is that it will push the price of homes down another 20%.  Contrast this with what our government is doing; flooding hundreds of billions into the banking system for the purpose of providing stability so money will be loaned to consumers.  As you can see this is a paradox, yet it is prudent on part of the banks to be conservative.  With the job losses mounting, it will be very important not to loan money to those who do not have the ability to repay.  I see our top leaders having no affect to the bottom line, regardless of how much money they print and distribute.  It is time to rein in our debt all the way through the system, from top to bottom.  This is already happening, yet isn't apparent because of the government's behavior with its ability to create money and how they are using it.  Now I think this market will drop well below 8000 and stay there until we as a world, not just a country, move in the direction of 'saving' along with spending.  This is a unique time in history and we happen to be alive to experience it.  This is an opportunity for great soul growth if you look at what is going to unfold as a needed correction for the benefit of the whole.

Here is  a quote from Thomas Jefferson in 1802:  "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.  If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."  

I look at this as prophecy that can be changed.  It is you and I, the individual, collectively working together to make sure that our government acts in a manner that serves all of us, regardless of how painful it may be for each of us individually.

One final thought to those who are invested or investing currently.  What seems like a good deal based on the past may not be a good deal based on the future.