It Is All In The Perspective

Today Standard and Poor issued a shot over the bough by saying that the outlook on Britain has gone from stable to negative because of massive borrowing to deal with the recession and bank crisis.  This is not a formal downgrade, but it might as well have been given the impact. The projected Britain government's net debt burden will rise close to 100% of economic output by 2013.  As of April 2009, it was 53.2%.  In my opinion, this is the orange flag that I have been waiting for given my concern about the U.S. increasing debt.

As of early May 2009, the U.S. debt is 80.1% Gross Domestic Product based on the current GDP.  The President's 2010 budget estimates indicates that debt will be 97% by 2010 and stabilize at 100% after that.  Looks like this country is going to finish the race before Britain with 100% debt.  Given that, how are we going to fair with Standard and Poor's rating?

Also, today, there was a statement that the offers for homes for sale in the Northeast are 20-30% less than the asking prices.  The bottom in the housing market has yet to show up with steep discounts like this.

For those who are active investors in this market, be very selective and fully conscious of buying and selling.  Remember, I am optimistic in the long run, but I think we are going to experience a giant bump in the investment road, sooner than later.  

Inflation

GDP contracted, a given.  The Feds loaning and giving billions to the top banks, backing commercial paper and money market funds.  Banks holding the money, doing the opposite of the intention of $700B bailout.  How long has it been since it was shoved through congress with the warning that there would be a financial meltdown without it?  There's a credibility gap with the Treasury with them using the 'cry wolf' approach.

Everyone is focused on the trees as inflation moves silently through the forest.   I can see a headline on the near horizon:  The world struggles to contain inflation that has jumped into the double digits.  People would argue that commodity prices are falling.  I am looking at the massive printing of money to meet the trillions of spending set in motion by Congress and the Treasury Department.  And if we end up with a Democratic controlled House of Representatives, Senate, and Presidency, then the momentum will continue with deficit spending to rescue the 'American people.'  

The good news is the stock markets don't mind inflation because prices can be raised to offset it.  The bad news is the consumer's money is worth less unless they are receiving raises or creating money to meet or exceed the inflation percentage increase.

What I find unfortunate is that we have had a check and balance for the last 8 years with a Democratic controlled Congress and a Republican presidency, and still we increased our debt by the trillions.  It appears that regardless of who is in control, the same path is continued.  I know that, at the world level, we will reach a peak regarding the debt level because there will no longer be willing and eager buyers without huge interest returns.  There will be a point where the answer is 'no.'  That will be a good turning point and also a painful one for those of us who participate in the financial system; virtually all of us.