Friday, June 25, 2010

Gulf Oil Spill, Part 3, Housing Bottom, Taxes Due

There are numerous threads unraveling from the federal government's fabric, the latest being the replacement of the general for Afghanistan. The economy, immigration, deficit and so on are breaking at the seams, but I think the most immediate focus needs to be oil cleanup, knowing that the spill will continue until at least mid-August. Everyone agrees that the magnitude of this is unknown, and that is the reason why we need to give it our full attention now. The others are manageable. It takes strong leadership and discipline from the white house and congress to handle those. With the oil spill, it takes a special talent and strong flexible manager. The money is expected to be available from BP. While the plan is being formulated by the Secretary of Navy, someone needs to be in charge so that no time is lost in between. I don't see or hear from anyone who is doing this. The coast guard keeps us updated based on what BP and others tell them.

Also, I have written numerous times that I think the housing market has to bottom out before the economy turns around. Now that the credits are gone which only delayed the inevitable, May numbers reflect that the bottom isn't visible yet with existing home sales down almost 10% and new home sales down 33%. All the forecasts are optimistic versus realistic. For those who are investing in the markets, make sure you have the staying power for the long haul.

Another more invisible thread that has shown its opening is the IRS reported for 2008, there were over 97,000 federal employees who were delinquent on their taxes, owing $1B. That includes 1151 employees who owed $7M at the Department of Treasury which oversees the IRS. This implies that they receive special treatment over us in the way they are treated. And it is a clear reflection of not 'walking the talk' that they require all other tax payers to walk. This kind of behavior is what contributes to revolutions.

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