Saturday, November 28, 2009

Dubai and Critical Mass

Hope all of you had a great Thanksgiving. :)

I was going to provide more statistics on the housing industry to show that the bottom hasn't been seen yet, but decided to wait until the bottom arrives.

An interesting statement the other day was that half of the world's banking losses have not been realized yet. I think Dubai, a country with no oil, may start to bring that to the world's attention with their decision to suspend debt payments, on about $70B, for 6 months. It seems prudent to take this step versus letting bankruptcy determine it. What American banks are directly/indirectly affected? And what affect will this have on credit expansion or constraint? But given our country's spending level, this debt amounts seems small in comparison.

Have you seen an aerial view of Dubai lately? They claim some of the tallest buildings in the world, and all around is sand and ocean. It's a huge 'resort city' that has imploded. It's a beautiful example of the extreme material excess the human has reached. Any extreme reaches a point of critical mass and then heads in the other direction, symbolized by Dubai.




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