Saturday, October 17, 2009

Housing, Credit Card Debt, Stock Market, North Korea

As you know I watch the housing climate and look for a bottom. We are far from it. Foreclosures were up 5% over the summer at a pace estimated to reach 3.5 million by the end of this year, up from 2.3 million last year. That's equivalent to 1 foreclosure every 13 seconds. Contemplate on that a moment. Keep in mind the commercial real estate defaults have yet to be acknowledged by the banks.

Bank of America lost over $2B last quarter and much of it was credit card write-offs. Consumer debt is contracting, mainly because they don't have the means to cover their survival level.

The stock market reaching $10K makes me uneasy. Notice it goes up and down depending on who comes out with earnings or losses. There is instability because the foundation is sitting on shifting sand. Again, without a bottom in the housing market most of the money the government spends has no return on the investment. The deficit is the biggest since WWII, 1945. There WILL be a ceiling to our debt level. Our debt holders will be the telling sign of the end of the road as we this method to try and artificially hold up the market that needs to purge itself so we can start anew from the bedrock.

I still watch the rebel countries. Having a senior North Korean diplomat visit us this month is a good sign that they are receiving the attention they need. Their country seem to be in the adolescence phase and need to be related to with this view.


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